Citigroup has lowered its 12-month Bitcoin price target to $112,000 from $143,000, raising questions about the future of the crypto bull run amid U.S. regulatory delays. This move by the Wall Street giant highlights growing concerns over stalled legislation in Washington that could slow institutional money flowing into Bitcoin.
Why Citigroup Cut the Bitcoin Price Target
Citigroup analysts, led by Alex Saunders, say delays in major crypto laws like the CLARITY Act are a key reason they’ve turned more cautious. The bank has also lowered its price target for Ethereum to $3,175 from $4,304, signaling a more careful outlook across the crypto market. In a base scenario, they expect Bitcoin to reach $112,000 within a year, but warn it could fall to $58,000 if economic conditions worsen, or climb to $165,000 if demand stays strong.
This isn’t the first time Citigroup has changed its stance. In late 2025, the bank was much more optimistic, predicting the Bitcoin price target could rise to $143,000 or even $181,000, fueled by strong ETF inflows and institutional interest. However, as 2026 progressed, regulatory delays and uncertainty began to weigh on the market outlook..
The Role of the CLARITY Act
The CLARITY Act aims to create clear rules for digital assets by splitting oversight between the SEC for security-like tokens and the CFTC for commodities like Bitcoin. It passed the House last summer but faced Senate delays, with odds of passage dropping to 60% recently. Early 2026 saw some progress, like the Senate Ag Committee advancing a version in January, but bipartisan talks stalled.
Without this bill, experts say institutional adoption stays limited, as big players wait for legal safety nets. Citigroup notes the “window for U.S. legislation this year is narrowing,” which could cap ETF money and slow the bull market.
Bitcoin’s Current Market Picture
As of mid-March 2026, Bitcoin trades around $72,000, down from peaks earlier in the year but up from 2025 lows. This comes amid macro worries like the upcoming FOMC meeting, which could sway rates and risk assets. Ethereum hovers near $2,100, facing similar headwinds.
The bull run, fueled by 2024-2025 halvings and ETF launches, pushed Bitcoin past $100,000 at times. Yet recent pullbacks tie to regulation fears, with fear indexes spiking as Washington debates intensify.
Could Washington End the Bull Run?
It’s unlikely to completely stop the market, but delays could slow things down or weaken the rally around the Bitcoin price target. Supporters of crypto in Congress and figures linked to Donald Trump have raised optimism, especially with expectations of pro-growth policies like stimulus spending and lighter regulations in 2026. If clearer rules are introduced, experts believe market manipulation could drop by 70–80%, helping more banks feel confident entering the space and supporting a stronger Bitcoin price target outlook.
However, challenges remain. Disagreements are still ongoing—banks pushed back against White House proposals in March, and strict party-line voting suggests more hurdles ahead. If the CLARITY Act gets approved, it could push the Bitcoin price target higher and trigger a fresh rally. If it doesn’t, the market may move sideways or even dip, making the near-term Bitcoin price target more uncertain.
What This Means for Investors
For everyday holders, Citigroup’s call suggests holding steady but watching D.C. news closely. Diversify into Ethereum or stablecoins if volatility rises, and eye supports at $70,000. Long-term, Bitcoin’s “digital gold” status holds, especially with global adoption rising.
Big institutions might pause new buys until rules clarify, but retail demand and halvings keep upside alive. Track Senate votes and FOMC outcomes—they could swing prices fast.
Broader Crypto Outlook in 2026
Despite hurdles, analysts see a policy-driven bull phase ahead, with U.S. clarity joining easing money policies. Binance Research predicts 2026 as a “structural turning point” less about hype, more about real integration. Citigroup itself plans Bitcoin services, hinting at belief in the asset despite cuts.
Global trends help too; Europe and Asia advance frameworks, pulling Bitcoin higher. This shift reminds us: crypto thrives on progress, but Washington holds the key right now. Stay informed, as one bill could change everything.
